Advanced PackagingLast Updated: 2026-10-08
4062.T
Ibiden Co., Ltd.
89
Alpha Score / 100
PHYSICAL ASSET ARCHITECTURE • 4062.T
Current Buy-Side View:Bullish
Current Cycle:Substrate Warpage & Quota Rationing Cycle
AI Exposure:High
Bottleneck Exposure:Critical
Key Investment Thesis
Large MCM packages (>100mm x 100mm) face acute CTE thermal mismatch, dropping vacuum lamination yields to 48–54%. Ibiden has booked delivery queues through Q3 2027 (56-78 weeks) and instituted customer quota rationing with 15–20% ASP hikes.
Customer rationing quotas officially expanded across non-Nvidia Tier-1 ASIC accounts.
What Would Change My Mind? (Falsification Criteria)
I am strongly bullish, but I would turn cautious if any of the following triggers occur:
- [1]Unimicron or Shennan achieve >75% lamination yield on 28-layer boards ahead of schedule.
- [2]Accelerated commercialization of glass core substrates prior to 2027.
Associated Theses
Related Research & Evidence
OCT 7, 2026
The Pacific Hardware Tape (#3): Lisa Su's 5-Year East Asia LTA Blitz, 28-Layer ABF Substrate Queues Hit 78 Weeks & Disco's 30µm Grinding Monopoly
OCT 8, 2026